Brett Favre's fantasy: More football

Brett is back.

A little less drama than usual, but the Favre is back in his proper place in the world – playing football somewhere in the American Midwest.

As a fantasy football owner the question becomes – how much do you really care?

Outside of Favre fan boys (who will take ye olde gunslinger with their first pick regardless and yes, these people do exist) it takes more of a discerning eye to quantify the value of Favre this year. It is his 20^th NFL season.  In the “Not For Long” league, that is an eternity, especially at one of the skill positions. How is Favre holding up? Is that ankle going to be a significant problem? Can he just jump into action a month after the start of training camp and pick up where he left off?

These are valid questions. The short answers are that Favre’s arm will probably be fine, the rest of his body has held up well through the years and he is perhaps the toughest player ever to drop under center (in reference to his ankle).  Twenty years gives Favre somewhat of a right to be given the benefit of the doubt, from fans, coaches, teammates and fantasy owners alike.

Senility set in with Favre long ago. Reference various retirements for proof. More importantly though, reference his actual performance through the years. Yes, last year he was remarkable. Perhaps even MVP worthy remarkable if it was not for the Era of Manning in the NFL. Yet, can you really expect more of the same from Favre this year? Look at last year’s numbers against his career averages.

2009 (Career)

Completion percentage – 68.4 (62.0)

Yards – 4202 (3648)

Touchdowns 33 (26)

Interceptions 7 (16)

Rating – 107.2 (86.6)

Favre was 201 yards off his career high, set in 1995 (with his second best mark at 4212 in 1998). He threw for more than 30 touchdowns for the first time since 2004. He had a career-low in interceptions with his previous low of 13 in both 1995 and 1996. Remember, this is the man who owns the all-time NFL mark in both touchdowns AND interceptions.

So, the question to ask yourself is: can Favre do it again?

Short answer?

No.

Last year was a special year for Favre. It was his “Stick It To The Packers” year along with a year that his franchise has legitimate Super Bowl aspirations that came just short in overtime of the NFC Championship game. Favre was also in camp earlier last year, though that should not be as big a problem as some will make it. This year Favre seems almost like it is an also-ran type of thing. He wanted to make sure he was healthy, he wanted to miss most of training camp (a guess but after 20 years of getting beaten by large men in the sweltering summer heat, would you want to show up if you did not really have to?), he wanted his annual 15 minutes of Summer Favre Mania.

The biggest thing that I notice this year is just the way Favre seems to be approaching it. Last year it was “I am thrilled to be a Viking and we are going to go out and win a god damn Super Bowl!” This year he is saying “Well, shucks, I just owed it to Minnesota to come back.” You know, unfinished business and all.

Favre is a guy who plays with fire and the brighter the better. It is almost like Terrell Owens in a roundabout way. When Owens burned his bridge with one team, he would go to the next and be a (relatively) model citizen and productive player. Then the next year he was back in his high chair screaming at whoever would listen about the indignities he had been served.

Look at Favre’s stats for the last couple of years. The last year in Green Bay was one of his best, slightly below what he did in Minnesota in 2009 (28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 4155 yards, 66.5 completion percentage, 95.7 quarterback rating). For all anyone really knew, that was going to be his last year in the NFL and he had something to prove with Aaron Rodgers being the quarterback the team seemed to favor going forward (in retrospect, with good reason).

The next year, things never really clicked with Favre in New York. It did not seem like his first choice of destinations, the team was mediocre and New York is definitely not Green Bay (or Mississippi). Subsequently Favre’s numbers slipped (22 touchdowns, league-leading 22 interceptions, 3472 yards, 65.7 completion percentage, 81 quarterback rating).

No fire. No Favre.

The thing to look for in Favre this time around in Minnesota is his decision making. Last year Favre was motivated last year to take care of the ball. Hence his highest career completion percentage and his lowest ever interception total. Yet, looking back on Favre’s trends, he is been a bit of a yo-yo. His penultimate year in Green Bay he threw 18 touchdowns and 18 interceptions (much like that 22/22 split for the Jets) with a mediocre team. Without that chip on his shoulder, Favre becomes undisciplined and unfocused and is a middling to bad quarterback.

That probably will not be entirely the case this time around with the Vikings. He still has a good team around him and perhaps a bit of a chip after yet-another playoff ending interception and this time it could possibly be the real end to his career. The last shot at glory. Favre probably will not be as good as last year but he will still be decent.

Where does that put him on your draft board? Think top-10 quarterback in the draft. Perhaps eighth or ninth. That would put him in the 65 to 80 pick range, depending on the priorities of your league. Anything above that and you have gone senile along with your quarterback. Anything below and he will probably be gone.

This post can also be found at rotoinfo.com

Also, if you are not a fan of the title, it is alright. It is a colleague's suggestion for an SEO optimized version thereof. Kind of clever actually. I hope.

Bruins press release in NHL investigation of Marc Savard's contract

BRUINS STATEMENT REGARDING NHL’S INVESTIGATION OF MARC SAVARD’S CONTRACT
EXTENSION

BOSTON, MA - Boston Bruins General Manager Peter Chiarelli issued the
following statement today regarding the NHL’s investigation of the
seven-year contract extension signed by Marc Savard on December 1, 2009:

“We are cooperating fully with the League in its investigation of the
Marc Savard contract extension.  The League informed us upon their
registration of the contract on December 1, 2009 that they would be
investigating the circumstances surrounding this contract.  From that
point on, they commenced their investigation and it has been ongoing
since then. On August 4th, I met with two League appointed lawyers as
part of the investigation.  We will continue to cooperate with the
League in any future investigative proceedings if necessary and we will
have no further comment on the matter at this time.”

Fantasy Baseball -- Impact of the trading deadline on pitchers

What does the MLB trade season mean to you?

It is the part of the baseball season when good players go from the dredges of the league to contenders. Where top-tier prospects get swapped and get their chance at big league jobs with bad clubs and minor moves make all the difference when it comes for a chance at October glory.

It is also one of the last opportunities for fantasy owners to make roster changes for the final push at the coveted league title.

Owners who have players like Cliff Lee, Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt are satisfied that the marquee pitchers on their rosters have moved on to greener pastures. When it comes to fantasy, the hope is that what real-life general managers did in July (and into the waiver season of August) translates into a couple extra wins, strikeouts, runs or home runs for fantasy owners.

That is the perception at least.

It does not always work out like that though. Lee is obviously worth more to the Rangers (and to fantasy owners) than he was for the Mariners. Through 13 starts in Seattle this season, Lee was a 3.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) pitcher, posting and 8-3 record with a 2.34 ERA through 103.2 innings. The Mariners are dead last in the majors this year in runs scored so it would figure to benefit Lee to move over to a Texas team that historically been known for its pop and sits at sixth in the league in the scoring department.

In theory.

So it is with baseball. What seems like a no-brainer outcome – better team, better offense, more wins – is no sure thing. In Lee’s 13 starts with the Mariners the team scored a respectable 4.8 runs per game for him (slightly above the league average of 4.7). The Rangers in six starts thus far?

A tick above 2.4.

That leaves Lee at 2-2 early in his Texas career. His ERA is higher that it was in Seattle at 2.63 while his home run rate has raised from .4 per nine innings to .7 and his strikeouts per nine has decreased from 7.7 to 6.5 (his career rate is 6.8).

This will even out, to a certain extent. So far Lee’s WAR in Texas is 1.7, a little more than half of what he had in Seattle in about half as many games. Yet, The Ball Park at Arlington (or whatever it is being called these days) has never been a friendly place when it comes to pitchers and home runs, so Lee’s ERA is probably not going to drop back down the 2.00 level, no matter how much Nolan Ryan or Chuck Greenberg compel him or how many carrots are promised in his next contract. Texas is just not friendly to pitchers. Of the nine home runs that Lee has given up this year, four have come with Texas, all at home (with three coming against Baltimore in his first start in a Rangers uniform).

Lee has perhaps 10 starts left with the Rangers this year. It is a fair assumption that Texas will start scoring more than 2.4 runs per each of his starts but it is not a foregone conclusion. If he wins eight of those starts, it will be a minor coup.

So, what is the fantasy conclusion for Lee now that he is in a Ranger uniform? Trade him now. Trade him to a pitching-needy team that is willing to pay for the perceived promise of those eight wins and make them overpay for a potential Cy Young winner. If you cannot extort a fair sum from your opponent you can keep him on the roster and know that he will not be hurting you down the stretch.

Let’s take a look at some of the early returns of big name pitchers changing teams.

Haren

With Arizona – 21 starts, 141 innings, 7 wins, 8 losses, 4.60 ERA, 1.348 WHIP, 9 K/9

With Los Angeles – 3 starts, 20 innings, 0 wins, 2 losses, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.2 K/9

Analysis – If you are in a keeper league, you should be very happy that Haren is out of the Arizona desert and into the California one. Yet, the Angels this year are not exactly a “good” team and Haren moves to the tougher league. So far his peripheral numbers look a little better than with the Diamondbacks but all you can really count on Haren for is strikeouts. Fantasy analysis? Keep him stashed away at the bottom of your rotation and let him help you in his one reliable category.

Oswalt

With Houston – 20 starts, 129 innings, 6 wins, 12 losses, 3.42 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 8.4 K/9

With Philadelphia – 2 starts, 12.1 innings, 0 wins, 1 loss, 4.38 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Analysis – Oswalt was motivated towards the end of his Astros career and his 8.4 K/9 (over a 7.4 mark through his career) was evidence of that. As such it appears that he is going through a bit of a “dead-arm” period right now with the Phillies and his numbers has suffered the short-terms effects of that correspondingly. Good for keeper leagues but trade him now if you can.

Matt Capps –

With Washington – 47 appearances, 46 innings, 3 wins, 3 losses, 26 saves, 2.64 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 7.4 K/9

With Minnesota – 5 appearances, 5 innings, 1 win, 0 losses, 2 saves, 1.80 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 14.4 K/9

Analysis – There is no reason to think that Capps cannot get it done in the Twin Cities the way he was getting it done with the slightly-less-than-awful-than-usual Nationals. He is a fair candidate to make an attempt to trade for as Minnesota battles for its playoff life.

 Dan Rowinski is a Fantasy Baseball Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at danrowinski@rotoinfo.com. You can follow him on Twitter at Dan_Rowinski.