Bruins: A rebuttal to opinion on free agency

I was reading an article on The Hub Of Hockey and could not help to voice my opinion against it. The article, entitled "Bruins must be active during free-agency" by Mark Marino explains how it would be nice not to trade Marc Savard yet somehow find a way to dump either Tim Thomas or Michael Ryders' contracts and move after a young scorer, in this case Duck's young forward Bobby Ryan, a restricted free agent.


What really gets my goat is that a good portion of the article is still going back to the loss of Phil Kessel as the primary reason the Bruins scored 74 less goals in 2009-10 than in 2008-09.


Consider this: The Bruins last year had a 7.5 percent shooting percentage. League average is around 10 percent (2008-09 Bruins shot 10.9 percent). This, like the BABIP stat in baseball, is one that tends to come back to the mean and is somewhat a signifier of luck. How many times last year did you see a sure goal bounce away? Those goals would go in in a different year. The Bruins deficit of goals from 2008-09 to 09-10 cannot, and should not, be attributed to Phil Kessel. Yes, perhaps he was a percentage but the problems the Bruins faced last year (injuries leading to lack of length on the lines) would not have been fixed directly with Kessel. I am of the opinion that, without doing much maneuvering, the Bruins would come back to the middle of the pack in scoring. Add Horton and Seguin, a healthy Krejci, Savard and Lucic an maturation from Blake Wheeler (which is distinctly possible) and the Bruins might be looking at a good scoring team. Better than average, at least. It is not unreasonable to expect a jump in scoring though it probably is unreasonable to say the Bruins get back to 2008-09 levels no matter what they do. It was a fortuitous year that saw a majority of Bruins players perform well above expectations. 2009-10 was directly the opposite yet the Bruins made it just as far as they had the year before. The point is that Chiarelli should not get crazy in free agency and by everything he has said to this point, he will not. The UFA (and especially the RFA) market is a good way to handicap future plans, of which the Bruins seem to have a good plan that I would like to see Chiarelli develop. Look for the only real signing for the Bruins to make to be roster filler second market guys (the Begin, Yelle, Satan types) and depth moves. Fans love to salivate over free agency. It is fun. They look over rosters of who is available and concoct schemes to acquire them. Yet, a team like the Bruins (who have some questionable contracts that are hard to move) cannot afford to go big in the free agent signing period. I guarantee that in two years you will be writing the same article about how Player X needs to be moved because of his contract the same way that you are railing on Michael Ryder (who should be moved less for his performance and more for his attitude down the stretch last year, he just seemed not to care).


Chiarelli has said repeatedly that they would acquire through the trade market. From breakdown day to the draft last week, he has stressed that the Bruins will not be active come July 1. This is perhaps smoke and mirrors, but I doubt it. He does not have a lot of flexibility at this point. Yes, he would love to move one of his more cumbersome contracts and there is a fair likelihood that he does, but do not expect him to jump off the deep end. Chiarelli is nothing if not pragmatic (though sometimes his decision making is questionable, ie, Lucic/Ference contract extensions).


What I do agree with you on is that moving Savard would be a mistake, at least in the short term. Tyler Seguin can play a wing and probably should start there given the current roster configuration. He will get his chance to play center next season, an injury always comes up. If the situation becomes untenable, then make a move.


Disagree if you like. I will make some type of gentleman's wager -- If Bobby Ryan is a Bruin next year I will eat my hat (not literally, but something of that ilk).

A mid-summers look at the Bruins

Some of you have been missing my Bruins analysis in the last month. Just because I am currently unaffiliated though does not mean that I cannot still break a roster down with the best of them. Since you last heard from me at WEEI.com there have been some interesting developments in the Bruins orbit. Cam Neely has been promoted to president of the team, Tim Thomas had hip surgery, Dennis Wideman was shipped out of town for Nathan Horton and Gregory Campbell and the team drafted some guy you may have heard about.

In my extensive breakdown of the Bruins roster shortly after the playoffs I made some predictions about the options that general manager Peter Chiarelli had in front of him in the offseason. Some of them have come to fruition (Wideman out, scoring forward in) and some that did not (Shawn Thornton being signed to an extension). So it goes. Sports reporting is an imperfect science and for the most part the best we can do is make educated guess and watch as the sideshow plays out.

After Chiarelli's conference call when the Bruins officially received the No. 2 pick in the draft, I felt like he was leaning in the direction of Tyler Seguin. That was before the OHL playoffs and Taylor Hall's gritty performance and his proposed affinity for Bobby Orr, but in trying to read Chiarelli I thought I got the sense that he liked the speed and scoring of Seguin just a bit more. Hence, I am not surprised that he did not try to get out of the second pick or make an drastic moves to get the the first overall from Edmonton because, as he stated all along, he was happy with either. Chiarelli would have been very pleased with Hall and in the end the forward probably had the slight edge over Seguin in Chiarelli's book but not enough to do anything drastic. Really, Seguin is a gift from Toronto general manager Brian Burke and Phil Kessel and the best thing for Chiarelli to do was to take that gift, say thank you and not look back.

And so it went.

Outside of the draft, the other priorities of immediate concern for the Bruins were to get their three primary unrestricted free agents figured out. Foremost on that list was Dennis Seidenberg, who Chiarelli awarded with a four-year, $13 million contract early in June. Seidenberg was important to keep because he can be slotted into the first pair with Zdeno Chara and significantly ease Chiarelli's mind when it comes to finding a sidekick for Big Z, a mild concern last offseason before the ill-fated acquisition of Derek Morris.

Johnny Boychuk was the second player on the list as the former AHL Defensive Player of the Year proved his NHL worth as a definite top-four defenseman who grew into Claude Julien's system (and the hearts of Bruins fans) as the year went along. Mark Recchi was next in line, ponying up for his usual $1 million one-year deal. Recchi was important to keep around if he was not going to retire as he is the type of character veteran that the Bruins need in the clubhouse after losing leaders P.J. Axelsson and Aaron Ward the previous year. Recchi is accountable and keeps the team on an even keel while putting things into perspective for a squad that often presses when things are going badly. He provides good depth and a stabilizing presence on Patrice Bergeron's wing and should make a semblance of a good mentor to Seguin (especially if Savard stays in the fold and Seguin ultimately plays the wing).

Thornton was a surprise to me in terms of Chiarelli's decision to keep him around as an unrestricted free agent. Many of us supposed pundits had him figured as out because of his limited hockey abilities outside of being a standup individual and team enforcer. My thought in particular was that Chiarelli would not want to keep a roster spot for an enforcer (of any kind really) given how the post lockout rules  make the position increasingly obsolete. On a personal note, I am glad that Thornton is back. Truly one of the good guys in the league.

Outside of the imminent trade market in the next couple of days before free agency opens Thursday which could see Savard or Thomas (or both) on their way out, Chiarelli's task is now to figure out how to fit his restricted free agents under the cap. With Wideman out of town it becomes important to get defenseman Mark Stuart under some form of contract for next year as he figures to man the second pairing with Boychuk or Andrew Ference. Blake Wheeler is trade bait but I am not sure that Chiarelli is ready to cut bait on the former top-five pick, especially considering the team's need for offense and the potential that Wheeler has in that department. Figure Daniel Paille to stick around as a penalty killer who has the intangibles to make him a good fit in terms of lengthening Julien's lines and his ability to jump up in lines given the inevitable injuries that come with the 82-game grind.

So, let's take a look at how the depth chart looks heading into Monday, June 28th (lines are approximate guess).

Forwards

Mark Recchi - Patrice Bergeron - Tyler Seguin

Milan Lucic - Marc Savard - Michael Ryder

Nathan Horton- David Krejci - Blake Wheeler

Shawn Thornton - Daniel Paille 

Depth -- Maxime Sauve, Zach Hamill, Jordan Caron and Joe Colbourne will all have a chance to make the team out of traing camp with Hamill perhaps the likeliest addition as a fourth-line center after the trade of Vladimir Sobotka to the Blues. 

Note - Marco Sturm fits into this equation in the second half of the year but after destroying a knee for the second straight year Chiarelli has to figure that any production out of the German winger is gravy on top of the biscuits.

Defense

Zdeno Chara - Dennis Seidenberg

Mark Stuart - Johnny Boychuk

Andrew Ference -- Matt Hunwick

Goaltenders

Tuukka Rask

Tim Thomas

Depth -- In the event that Thomas is traded, look for Dany Sabourin to get first crack at backup duties with Matt Dalton and Kevin Regan distant players in that race.

Depth -- Adam McQuaid has proven he is NHL ready and Chiarelli has made a plethora of depth moves to bring in young defensemen to the farm. Jeffrey Penner and Andrew Bodnarchuk are probably looking at careers as Black Aces with Bodnarchuk a restricted free agent this summer.

What are the questions here? Chiarelli is probably looking for another big time defender, with the Leafs Tomas Kaberle always a perpetual option via trade. Does Michael Ryder stick around? It is a good bet that either Wheeler or Ryder will not be with the Bruins next season though with Ryder's $4 million contract, Wheeler will have to be the dangling carrot.

This is all, of course, very unscientific and since I have not been privy to insider conversations recently, really are just my best guesses based off talent available and the current organizational depth.

What do you think? What is the next move as Chiarelli retools his team into a legitimate Cup contender?